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Improving the Adequacy of Economic Models

Authors:

Yury B. Melnikov, Yelena A. Onokhina and Sergey A. Shitikov

Abstract:

The research aims to identify all possible avenues for improving the adequacy of models, which is regarded as one of the indicators of the quality of a model. Methodologically, the research relies on the theory of adequacy, which is a part of the authors’ theory of modeling based on the formal constructive interpretation of the model. To solve the problem of improving the adequacy, the authors suggest considering the model of adequacy, which consists of pairs of a kind (the model being evaluated and the reference model). On this set, the authors determine the characteristics of adequacy, i.e. functions, the values of which allow assessing the quality of the model being evaluated by comparison with the reference model. In the authors’ opinion, the model of adequacy must satisfy five postulates listed in the paper. On the basis of these postulates the authors deduced all possible ways of evolutionary improvement of the adequacy of models. To exemplify these recommendations, the authors applied them to improve the adequacy of a model for forecasting tax revenues, as well as some other economic models. The presented research is of theoretical nature, for this reason the examples are descriptive.

Keywords: model; economic modeling; adequacy of economic model; improvement of adequacy; quality of economic models

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For citation: Melnikov Yu. B., Onokhina Ye. A., Shitikov S. A. Uluchshenie adekvatnosti ekonomicheskikh modeley [Improving the adequacy of economic models]. Izvestiya Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta – Journal of the Ural State University of Economics, 2018, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 94−106. DOI: 10.29141/2073-1019-2018-19-1-8