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Demographic Landscape of the Region: Drivers, Dynamics, Trends, Forecasts


Nadezhda M. Surnina

Aleksey A. Ilyukhin

Svetlana V. Ilyukhinа


Natural population change is the main factor in formation of regional labour resources. The paper focuses on important aspects of demographic landscape dynamics, detects trends in population change and utilization of labour resources of a large industrial region at the example of Sverdlovsk oblast. The authors analyze the dynamics of population of Sverdlovsk oblast (death, birth and migration rates) and average number of employees in the full range of organizations for 2011–2016, as well as forecast population change in the main municipalities of Sverdlovsk oblast. The research findings reveal that migration processes tend to increasingly affect natural population change and, thus, new realities of demographic situation linked with assimilation of external migrants appear. These processes penetrate into peripheral areas of the oblast, which are rich in natural resources. Migration to urban municipalities with developed economic structure has increased, especially after the regional economy passed the bottom of the economic downturn. The short-term forecast of population dynamics in key municipalities of Sverdlovsk oblast indicated a significant rapid increase in the resource base of the labour market in non-singleindustry satellite cities of Yekaterinburg.

Keywords: demographic landscape; population change; natural population growth; fertility; mortality; labour resources; migration; migration of labour resources; population estimates.

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Surnina N. M., Ilyukhin A. A., Ilyukhina S. V. Demograficheskiy landshaft regiona: faktory, dinamika, tendentsii, prognozy [Demographic landscape of the region: Drivers, dynamics, trends, forecasts]. Izvestiya Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta – Journal of the Ural State University of Economics, 2017, no. 4 (72), pp. 32–44.